Aedes Control

When is your site’s dengue high season — and how much does a control plan lower it?

A within-season timing tool for places where Aedes aegypti is established. From temperature alone it shows when transmission risk peaks at your site, and how much a schedule of larvicide, adulticide or breeding-site removal brings it down.

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A planning aid for places where Aedes aegypti is already established. It says when in the year conditions favour transmission, and how much a schedule lowers that — not whether an outbreak will happen. Risk is shown relative to the site’s own peak because the model’s absolute level depends on a breeding-site density it assumes rather than measures. Use it alongside local surveillance and judgement.

About this model
Includes
Temperature-dependent development, survival and egg-laying of Aedes aegypti from egg to adult; the effect of larvicide, adulticide and breeding-site removal on those stages; a temperature-dependent transmission index based on adult mosquitoes per person.
Leaves out
Rainfall (not used in this version). Local breeding-site density — the same reference value per person is used everywhere, which is why only relative risk is shown. Human immunity, imported cases and reported case counts. Insecticide resistance, coverage and operational limits. Cost.
Finding the best dates
This page tests the dates you choose. The desktop application searches for the dates that lower average risk most; that search takes 30–40 minutes.
Papers
A. Vajdi, L. W. Cohnstaedt, C. M. Scoglio, H. Shakeri. Optimal scheduling of dengue vector control. Journal of Theoretical Biology 637:112617, 2027. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2026.112617
A. Vajdi, L. W. Cohnstaedt, C. M. Scoglio. Assessing dengue risk globally using non-Markovian models. Journal of Theoretical Biology 591:111865, 2024. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2024.111865